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TB Guinness Global Energy Fund

Overview

The Guinness Global Energy strategy seeks capital growth through exposure to global energy markets.

We believe that over the next twenty years the combined effects of population growth, developing world industrialisation and diminishing fossil fuel supplies will force energy prices higher.

The world's population is growing at a rate of 1% per year and is projected to rise over the next 20 years by 1.5 billion people. Over 90% of this growth will come from developing countries. The implications for energy consumption are profound. In China and India, among the world's largest and fastest-growing economies, growing demand for electricity, cars and consumer goods will have a significant impact on the world's energy balance.

The rise in global energy demand is projected to continue long into the future. And it is highly likely that the majority of this demand will be met by mainstream energy sources like oil, natural gas and coal, supported by growth in renewable technologies.

Meanwhile, the risk that energy supplies fall short of what is required over the next few years is intensifying as, in particular, the era of low-cost, easily extractable oil comes to an end. The non-OPEC world, despite the success of shale oil in the US, struggles to grow production consistently. Any spare production capacity that OPEC countries may have today is likely to decline quickly as they respond to the expected rise in demand and shortfalls caused by events such as civil war or sanctions. Put simply, the oil industry faces a huge challenge to build up new supplies of oil to compensate for the rapid decline in existing fields.

The combination of growing demand and supply challenges signals that energy prices will move up over time. This would create a favourable environment for companies with energy reserves and for their service providers and distributors. 

Investment Team

High quality funds are run by high quality people.

We pride ourselves of having a collegial culture, with teams across the business successfully working together to achieve positive outcomes for our investors.
 

Will Riley

Will Riley

Portfolio Manager, Specialist Team

Jonathan Waghorn

Jonathan Waghorn

Portfolio Manager, Specialist Team

DH

Dan Hobster

Investment Analyst, Specialist Team

How to Invest

We aim to make it simple to invest in our funds. All our funds are open to direct investment via an application form. They are widely available on investment platforms and are eligible for UK investors’ ISAs and SIPPs.

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Investment Case

Our stock selection is driven 50% by our top-down (macro) views and 50% by bottom-up stock analysis.

Rigorous independent analysis of the fundamental drivers of energy markets (e.g. oil supply and demand; OPEC behaviour; natural gas supply and demand; global LNG market; thermal and met coal markets). This allows us to forecast energy commodity prices and creates our top-down view, which in turn informs our energy sub-sector allocation.

Stock ideas are derived from a disciplined stock screening process. We review a universe of around 370 energy stocks each week to identify companies which look attractive on valuation, return on investment, earnings sentiment, and price momentum. Other screens specific to certain sub-sectors are also employed. Due diligence is performed on our stock ideas to establish whether we have conviction to include the stock in our portfolio. The due diligence centres around detailed financial modelling.

The portfolio comprises 30 equally weighted positions and does not follow any benchmark in its sub-sector weights, such as to ‘super-majors’. The portfolio is liquid, with 90% of the Fund normally invested in companies with a market capitalisation over US $1 billion.

 

In brief: why invest in energy?

Energy demand

Population growth and rising global wealth are driving relentless growth in the consumption of energy.
 

Energy supply

Despite improvements in alternative energy supplies, fossil fuels will remain the predominant world energy source for decades to come. However, the era of easily accessible, low-cost oil is over.
 

Energy company profits

Rising demand and depletion of low-cost energy supplies will push energy prices higher. This will create a favourable environment for companies with resource reserves, as well as their service providers and distributors.
 

Energy & inflation

Energy prices are a significant driver of inflation, which makes energy companies a useful long-term inflation hedge. If we see dollar inflation of 30-50% over the next decade (that’s just 2.7-4.3% per year), it will be surprising if oil and gas prices do not rise by a comparable percentage.
 

In detail: Energy Investment Case

“More motor vehicles will be sold over the next 20 years than have been sold in the entire history of the automobile industry.”

Supply is struggling to keep pace

High oil and natural gas prices between 2006 and 2014 incentivised energy companies to invest in new technologies, resulting in strong natural gas and oil production from unconventional shale resources in North America. This growth caused a change of production strategy from OPEC at the end of 2014, and this has led to sharply lower oil prices as OPEC grows production and defends market share while North American production starts to slow. We believe that OPEC is now producing near maximum capacity, while non-OPEC production will decline in the future as a result of lower investment levels. The industry still faces a big challenge in delivering reasonable oil supply growth at reasonable prices.
 

Favourable environment for investing in energy

The combination of growing demand and inadequate future supply signals that oil and other energy prices will move up over time. This would create a very favourable environment for companies with energy resources and for their service providers and distributors.

The Guinness Global Energy Fund seeks to capitalise on this energy price environment. We keep coming back to one key proposition: easily extractable oil and gas assets remain scarce, and it seems reasonable to believe that, as they get scarcer, they will trade at higher prices than we have yet seen. We believe shareholders in energy companies that are part of that world will be duly rewarded.
 

Surging demand for energy from developing countries

The world's population is growing at a rate of 1% per year, and is projected by the UN to rise by a further 20% (1.5 billion people) by 2030. Over 90% of this growth will come from developing countries. The implications for energy consumption are profound.

More motor vehicles will be sold over the next 20 years than have been sold throughout the entire history of the automobile industry. The surge of demand for electricity, cars and consumer goods in emerging markets will have a significant impact on the world's energy balance. China’s demand for oil per capita has not yet reached that of the OECD in 1950. There are 20 years of unrelenting oil demand growth to come as China’s vehicle fleet moves from 100 million now to 400 million by 2030, with numerous other countries following behind.

The rise in global energy demand is projected to continue long into the future. It is likely that the majority of this demand will be met by mainstream energy sources like oil, natural gas and coal.

The world’s oil consumption currently stands at around 94 million barrels per day, and continues to reach new highs each year. Even in the global recession of 2008/09, demand for oil from emerging markets continued to grow. We think that, over the next 10 years, global oil demand growth of 10-15 million barrels per day is highly plausible.

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Investment process

Our stock selection is driven 50% by our top-down (macro) views and 50% by bottom-up stock analysis. The top-down views shape our energy sub-sector allocation, whilst bottom-up analysis is designed to identify the best stocks to populate our sub-sector allocation. The investment team applies a mixture of value and growth investing, with a bias towards value.

Top-down views

Rigorous independent analysis of the fundamental drivers of energy markets (e.g. oil supply and demand; OPEC behaviour; natural gas supply and demand; global LNG market; thermal and met coal markets). This allows us to forecast energy commodity prices and creates our top-down view, which in turn informs our energy sub-sector allocation.

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Key Energy Equity Sub-Sectors

Bottom-up stock screening

The team operates a disciplined stock screening process. We review a universe of around 370 energy stocks each week to identify companies which look attractive on valuation, return on investment, earnings sentiment, and price momentum. Other screens specific to certain sub-sectors are also employed to generate ideas.
 

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Energy

Stock due diligence

Stock ideas are taken from our screens and due diligence is performed to establish whether we have conviction to include the stock in our portfolio. The due diligence centres around detailed financial modelling.

Portfolio Construction

 

Equally-weighted portfolio

The portfolio comprises 30 equally-weighted positions. Most of the positions comprise a single stock but a few are split across more than one stock, giving the portfolio 40-45 stocks in total. Our equally-weighted portfolio construction is designed create the best balance between maintaining fund concentration and managing stock-specific risk. It also imposes a structural sell discipline: an existing position must be sold to purchase a new holding.
 

Sector weights

The Fund does not follow any benchmark in its sub-sector weights. In particular, there are no underweight restrictions; the “super-major” oil and gas sector weighting may be zero.

Portfolio Risk Controls

 

Stock specific risk

Stock specific risk in the energy sector tends to be higher than the broader market. By constructing the Fund of 30 equally-weighted positions, we avoid significant exposure to any one individual stock.
 

Emerging market exposure

Normal practice is that emerging market exposure (considered by listing and by underlying asset exposure) is limited to 20% of the Fund.
 

Liquidity

The portfolio is liquid, with 90% of the Fund normally invested in companies with a market capitalisation over US $1 billion.
 

Currency

The Fund is not hedged from a currency perspective. However, because the underlying investments have an exposure to energy commodity prices, this tends to act as a natural hedge against currency movement.

 

Factsheets

 

 

Fund English French German Spanish Italian
TB Guinness Global Energy Fund Download

Updates

 

 

Document
TB Guinness Global Energy Fund
September 2023
Document
TB Guinness Global Energy Fund
July 2023
TB Guinness Global Energy Fund
April 2023
Document
TB Guinness Global Energy Fund
September 2023
TB Guinness Global Energy Fund
August 2023
TB Guinness Global Energy Fund
July 2023
TB Guinness Global Energy Fund
June 2023
TB Guinness Global Energy Fund
May 2023
TB Guinness Global Energy Fund
April 2023

KIIDS

 

 

Fund Class ISIN English French German Spanish Italian Swedish Finnish
TB Guinness Global Energy Fund I ACC GBP GB00B56FW078
TB Guinness Global Energy Fund R ACC GBP GB00B5640222

Documents

Document

TB Guinness Global Energy Fund - Reports & Accounts and Value Assessment

TB Guinness Funds - Supplementary Information Document

TB Global Energy Fund - Prospectus

TB Guinness Global Energy Fund - Application Form

TB Guinness Funds - Target Market Assessment

Fund Facts

For information on the Fund’s current investments, please see the latest fact sheet available on the literature tab above.

 

Launch Date
Fund managers (start date)
Jonathan Waghorn (31/07/2019)
Will Riley (31/07/2019)
Tim Guinness (31/07/2019)
Benchmark
MSCI World Energy Index
IA sector
IA Commodities and Natural Resources
Structure
Unit Trust (UCITS)
Domicile
UK
Underlying currency
Pounds Sterling
Pricing
Daily, forwards
Valuation
1200 UK time
Deal cut off time
1200 UK time
Administrator
T. Bailey Fund Services Limited
Custodian
Northern Trust
UK Reporting Fund status
Yes
ISA Eligible
Yes

Share Classes

For full information on the share classes available for investment please refer to the Key Investor Information document.

 

Class OCF current Max Initial Charge Min Investment ISIN SEDOL Bloomberg
I ACC GBP 0.95% 0.00% 1,000 GB00B56FW078 B56FW07 ARTGLEI LN
R ACC GBP 1.70% 0.00% - GB00B5640222 B564022 ARTGLER LN

Share Prices

The Funds are priced every working day at 12.00 UK time and updated here the following day.

 

Fund name Isin Fund price (+/-) Date
TB GUINNESS ASIAN EQUITY INCOME FUND Y INCOME GBP GB00BMFKG774 89.87 0.26 29/09/2023
TB GUINNESS ASIAN EQUITY INCOME FUND Y ACCUMULATION GBP GB00BMFKG667 99.23 0.3 29/09/2023
TB GUINNESS EUROPEAN EQUITY INCOME FUND Y INCOME GBP GB00BP5J6N11 105.21 1.92 29/09/2023
TB GUINNESS EUROPEAN EQUITY INCOME FUND Y ACCUMULATION GBP GB00BP5J6M04 108.03 1.97 29/09/2023
TB GUINNESS EUROPEAN EQUITY INCOME FUND Z INCOME GBP GB00BP5J6Q42 105.56 1.92 29/09/2023
TB GUINNESS EUROPEAN EQUITY INCOME FUND Z ACCUMULATION GBP GB00BP5J6P35 108.47 1.98 29/09/2023
TB GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME FUND Y INCOME GBP GB00BNGFN669 130.82 0.77 29/09/2023
TB GUINNESS GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME FUND Y ACCUMULATION GBP GB00BNGFN776 139.76 0.81 29/09/2023
TB GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS FUND Y ACCUMULATION GBP GB00BP5J5Y50 120.78 1.01 29/09/2023
TB GUINNESS SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUND Y ACCUMULATION GBP GB00BP5J6198 89.96 0.87 29/09/2023
TB GUINNESS SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUND Z ACCUMULATION GBP GB00BP5J6206 90.1 0.87 29/09/2023
TB GUINNESS SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL EQUITY FUND Y ACCUMULATION GBP GB00BP5J7C70 101.91 1.39 29/09/2023
TB GUINNESS SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL EQUITY FUND Z ACCUMULATION GBP GB00BP5J7D87 102.27 1.39 29/09/2023
TB GUINNESS UK EQUITY INCOME FUND O OVERSEAS INCOME GB00BYX94G55 69.26 1.21 29/09/2023
TB GUINNESS UK EQUITY INCOME FUND O OVERSEAS ACCUMULATION GB00BYX94F49 89.18 1.54 29/09/2023
TB GUINNESS UK EQUITY INCOME FUND Y CLEAN INCOME GB00BYX94J86 74.66 1.3 29/09/2023
TB GUINNESS UK EQUITY INCOME FUND Y CLEAN ACCUMULATION GB00BYX94H62 95.58 1.67 29/09/2023
TB GUINNESS UK EQUITY INCOME FUND Z EARLY INVESTOR INCOME GB00BYX94L09 75.49 1.31 29/09/2023
TB GUINNESS UK EQUITY INCOME FUND Z EARLY INVESTOR ACCUMULATION GB00BYX94K91 96.83 1.69 29/09/2023
19 July 2023

Guinness Global Energy Fund - Webcast - Covering Q2 2023

Date: Jul 19, 2023 02:00 PM [GMT+1]Will Riley
12 April 2023

Guinness Global Energy Fund - Webcast - Covering Q1 2023

Date: Apr 12, 2023 02:00 PM [GMT+1]Jonathan Waghorn & Will Riley
6 March 2023

Investment Week reveals finalists for Fund Manager of the Year Awards 2023

Global Equity Income Fund and Global Energy Fund shortlisted for industry awards.
12 January 2023

Guinness Global Energy Fund - Webcast - Covering Q4 2022

Date: Jan 12, 2023 02:00 PM [GMT+0]Jonathan Waghorn & Will Riley
27 October 2022

Tim Guinness on Citywire Funds Fanatic podcast: asset management through boom and bust

Founder and Chairman, Tim Guinness discussed founding (at least) two asset managers, the evolving…
13 October 2022

Guinness Global Energy Fund - Webcast - Covering Q3 2022

Date: Oct 13, 2022 02:00 PM [GMT+1]Jonathan Waghorn & Will Riley
28 July 2022

Fidelity Podcast: Are energy price rises here to stay?

Jonathan Waghorn, manager of the Guinness Global Energy Fund joins Fidelity International to…
21 July 2022

Guinness Global Energy Fund - Webcast - Covering Q2 2022

Date: JUL 21, 2022 11:00 AM [GMT+1]Jonathan Waghorn & Will Riley
2 October 2021

How to cash in on the international supply crisis

Demand for oil, copper and other commodities is growing — could this help investors to beat the…
Document

TB Guinness Global Energy Fund - Application Form