TB Guinness Global Energy Fund

“More motor vehicles will be sold over the next 20 years than have been sold in the entire history of the automobile industry.”

High oil and natural gas prices between 2006 and 2014 incentivised energy companies to invest in new technologies, resulting in strong natural gas and oil production from unconventional shale resources in North America. This growth caused a change of production strategy from OPEC at the end of 2014, and this has led to sharply lower oil prices as OPEC grows production and defends market share while North American production starts to slow. We believe that OPEC is now producing near maximum capacity, while non-OPEC production will decline in the future as a result of lower investment levels. The industry still faces a big challenge in delivering reasonable oil supply growth at reasonable prices.
 

The combination of growing demand and inadequate future supply signals that oil and other energy prices will move up over time. This would create a very favourable environment for companies with energy resources and for their service providers and distributors.

The Guinness Global Energy Fund seeks to capitalise on this energy price environment. We keep coming back to one key proposition: easily extractable oil and gas assets remain scarce, and it seems reasonable to believe that, as they get scarcer, they will trade at higher prices than we have yet seen. We believe shareholders in energy companies that are part of that world will be duly rewarded.
 

The world's population is growing at a rate of 1% per year, and is projected by the UN to rise by a further 20% (1.5 billion people) by 2030. Over 90% of this growth will come from developing countries. The implications for energy consumption are profound.

More motor vehicles will be sold over the next 20 years than have been sold throughout the entire history of the automobile industry. The surge of demand for electricity, cars and consumer goods in emerging markets will have a significant impact on the world's energy balance. China’s demand for oil per capita has not yet reached that of the OECD in 1950. There are 20 years of unrelenting oil demand growth to come as China’s vehicle fleet moves from 100 million now to 400 million by 2030, with numerous other countries following behind.

The rise in global energy demand is projected to continue long into the future. It is likely that the majority of this demand will be met by mainstream energy sources like oil, natural gas and coal.

The world’s oil consumption currently stands at around 94 million barrels per day, and continues to reach new highs each year. Even in the global recession of 2008/09, demand for oil from emerging markets continued to grow. We think that, over the next 10 years, global oil demand growth of 10-15 million barrels per day is highly plausible.

The portfolio comprises 30 equally-weighted positions. Most of the positions comprise a single stock but a few are split across more than one stock, giving the portfolio 40-45 stocks in total. Our equally-weighted portfolio construction is designed create the best balance between maintaining fund concentration and managing stock-specific risk. It also imposes a structural sell discipline: an existing position must be sold to purchase a new holding.
 

The Fund does not follow any benchmark in its sub-sector weights. In particular, there are no underweight restrictions; the “super-major” oil and gas sector weighting may be zero.