Guinness Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund

Emerging market equities can provide diversification benefits to a portfolio with their exposure to a wider array of economic drivers. Our focus on individual businesses has tended to accentuate the diversification benefits by concentrating on factors specific to a given business in Brazil, South Africa or Thailand rather than on likely beneficiaries of top-down macro-economic themes.

Our investment process steers us away from more cyclical companies, such as those heavily exposed to commodities, and towards companies that have a long-term track record of generating high returns on capital. We believe these companies will be well placed to perform in the future.

The dividend is a natural outcome for those companies that are generating above cost of capital returns on investment. This then becomes a visible sign of capital discipline and good corporate governance where the management is focused sustaining and growing cash profits.

We focus on ‘bottom-up’ stock selection rather than trying to make decisions based on an expected outlook for the region’s economies. We like to invest in good companies that have, in the short term, fallen out of favour, but that have previously shown an ability to weather most economic environments over time.

The strategy typically invests in 36 companies, with each company having an equal weighting. This provides a good balance between the benefits of diversification while also allowing each company to add meaningfully to performance. We don’t have a long tail of small positions and by definition we can never just ‘hug’ the benchmark index.

Emerging market equities can provide diversification benefits to a portfolio with their exposure to a wider array of economic drivers. Our focus on individual businesses has tended to accentuate the diversification benefits by concentrating on factors specific to a given business in Brazil, South Africa or Thailand rather than on likely beneficiaries of top-down macro-economic themes.
 

Emerging Market countries are making significant contributions to global growth. Demographic tailwinds combine with other factors to raise income levels. In India, for example, over one million people per month are entering the workforce. There are many different drivers. Capital accumulation contributes to the strength of emerging market economies in Asia, as foreign investors compete with local companies and individuals to benefit from access to new markets and customers. Rising income levels are leading to increased consumption and the emergence of a new middle class, accompanied by higher levels of wealth. In Latin America, resources and materials exert a powerful pull over Brazil while in Mexico, export manufacturing for its North American neighbour is very influential. Central Europe is sensitive to demand from the Eurozone, Russia is sensitive to energy while resource-rich South Africa has a substantial domestic consumer market. This provides a backdrop to a wide variety of businesses and investment opportunities.
 

China stands out among emerging markets for its ability to have evolved as the centre of a manufacturing hub that is increasingly mobbing up the value chain. The country’s exports are no longer dominated by unsophisticated goods, as China has developed the ‘know-how’ required to produce ever more complex goods. This ‘know-how’ results from a combination of education, understanding and developing manufacturing processes and the acquisition of technology. As production capabilities improve, so worker’s wages rise. This renders uneconomic manufacturing that is most labour-dependent, which is then relocated to where labour is cheaper.

Services play an important role in India, which has developed specialisms in IT consultancy and business process outsourcing. As well as providing employment for millions of people, the skills and expertise in these sectors have pushed India to pioneer the development of a national digital identity programme on an unprecedented scale. Aadhaar is a system for verifying identity that has many applications, including ensuring benefits are sent directly to recipients, making payments, signing documents and completing verification procedures when opening a new bank account. Around 1.2bn citizens (nearly the entire population) have been signed up for the service.

Other sources of growth include the significant infrastructure projects being developed across emerging markets to support a population that is increasing, and becoming more urban.
 

Emerging Markets are not a single block – countries’ economies are always moving at different speeds. Some have more exposure to commodities and cyclical industries, which experience phases of boom and bust. A country’s exposure to external demand—how dependent it is on global trade—can also cause it to undergo faster or slower periods of growth. And political instability can lead to bouts of economic volatility, particularly if foreign investors decide to withdraw capital.

Long-term development is not a straightforward process. As well as demographic factors, development is affected by the political and economic institutions present in an economy. Structural reforms necessary to support business and economic growth are on ongoing process in emerging market countries, whether that is labour reforms in Brazil or chaebol reforms—the large, family-owned conglomerates—in Korea.

It is this long-term development that underpins the growth that is of interest to investors in emerging markets, and it is the ability to access long-term growth that is of most interest to us.

Our investment process naturally steers us away from more cyclical companies, such as those heavily exposed to commodities, and towards companies that have a long-term track record of generating high returns on capital. We believe these companies will be well placed to perform in the future.
 

The growth potential that is on offer in Emerging Markets has to be balanced against the risks. Political, legal and financial institutions in emerging markets can vary greatly in their robustness and transparency. The financial systems, debt level and foreign currency exposures can provide additional sources of uncertainty. In some cases, economies in emerging regions are subject to factors entirely beyond their control – commodity prices, US dollar liquidity and interest rates being examples. To mitigate these, we invest in companies with long track records of profitability which we believe to be the product of individual business attributes or management skill. A demonstrable track record of financial success we think, is an indicator of a company’s ability to survive and prosper in an uncertain world.