Guinness Annual Conference Recap
On Tuesday 16th September, we hosted our Annual Conference in the Sainsbury's Wing at The National Gallery. Many portfolio managers attended to present their respective funds or have a fireside chat.
Agenda
Why Europe Deserves your attention – Will James
Asia Is The Future Again – Edmund Harriss
Drilling into The Energy Transition – Will Riley & Jamie Melrose
Ready for anything, global equities in uncertain times – Dr Ian Mortimer
Real Assets – a critical foundation – Mark Brennan
Interactive Panel on Global Markets – Edmund Harriss, Dr Ian Mortimer, Jonathan Waghorn & Will James
Why Europe Deserves Your Attention – Will James
Guinness European Equity Income Portfolio Manager Will James kicked off the conference by highlighting why intelligent stock selection is key to unlocking Europe’s recovery potential. Despite persistent headlines around political risk and sluggish growth, James argued that European equities offer a compelling mix of quality, value, and structural transformation. The continent’s move toward energy independence, increased defence spending, and pragmatic regulatory reform all point to a more self-reliant and innovative Europe. Beneath the surface of macro uncertainty, he sees strong evidence of resilience — from France’s steady growth and Italy’s reform momentum to surging renewable investment and a renaissance in European defence industries. James emphasised that opportunity lies in focusing on fundamentals over noise. By identifying high-quality companies with robust balance sheets, sustainable cash flows, and disciplined dividend policies, investors can benefit from Europe’s evolution rather than fear its challenges. With valuations remaining attractive relative to the US, concentrated portfolios built on conviction and repeatable processes are well placed to capture the next phase of Europe’s recovery.
Asia Is The Future Again - Edmund Harriss
Edmund Harriss, Chief Investment Officer at Guinness Global Investors, outlined why Asia represents one of the most powerful investment opportunities of our time. He highlighted a profound demographic and economic transformation underway — driven by a young, growing population and rising income levels — that is reshaping global wealth creation. With billions entering middle and high-income brackets, consumption patterns across Asia are accelerating in a way that mirrors, and may soon exceed, the post-war Western boom. At the same time, the region’s manufacturing and services sectors are evolving from low-cost production to innovation-led industries, supported by heavy investment in research, automation, and technology. Harriss emphasised that Asia is no longer a follower but a leader — pioneering advances in batteries, semiconductors, renewable energy, and AI. Intraregional trade now surpasses Europe’s, creating a self-sustaining growth engine underpinned by quality companies and consistent cash generation. Despite this, Asian markets remain attractively valued compared to the West, offering the potential for long-term, compounding returns through a blend of profit growth and strong dividends. For investors willing to look beyond short-term sentiment and Western market concentration, Asia stands out as a generational opportunity to participate in genuine structural growth at compelling valuations.
Drilling into The Energy Transition - Will Riley & Jamie Melrose
Will Riley, Portfolio Manager, and Jamie Melrose, Senior Investment Analyst for the Specialist team at Guinness Global Investors, discuss the current market environment for both fossil fuels and renewable energy and why the world’s appetite for energy remains insatiable. Melrose identifies three key drivers behind the sustainable energy market's recent outperformance: growing demand for electrical equipment, increasing support from Europe, and policy clarity from the US. While looking at American politics might understandably make you believe that the Energy Transition has stalled, it is worth looking globally, where investment in green technology has reached $2.2 trillion, double what it was in 2020. Looking forward, key areas to watch include investment in data centres to support the growing use of energy-intensive AI technology, the short-term prospects of developed wind and solar energy, and the long-term potential of nuclear power. Riley outlines how the growth in oil demand has been pushed by an increasingly broader base, with emerging markets like India and the Middle East being central drivers. While oil prices are depressed today, Riley predicts that in the long term, prices will rise back to an equilibrium of $80. This is attributed to slowing shale oil production, oil growth investment from other non-OPEC countries set to peak in 2027, and OPEC capitalising on current demand by reducing supply. Now is a key time for energy assets, which are significantly undervalued relative to their returns compared with the general market. However, this opportunity won’t last forever.
Ready for anything, global equities in uncertain times - Dr Ian Mortimer
Dr Ian Mortimer, Portfolio Manager for the Global Team, discusses the central US tariff ‘deals’ from China to Europe, the uncertainty around where the effective tariff rate will land, and how this has affected market performance year-to-date. Investors need to consider the direct, knock-on, and systemic long-term implications of tariff negotiations. While tariff concerns are still something to be considered, the predicted impact on growth is less damaging than initially thought on Liberation Day. With constantly shifting data points, Ian emphasises the importance of keeping abreast of company sentiment to gain insight into the potential effects of the broader market. With many macro questions still unanswered and an unstable macro environment, now is the time for stable, high-quality companies.
Real Assets – a critical foundation - Mark Brennan
The past few years have been tough for real assets. However, Portfolio Manager Mark Brennan asserts that we are currently at a turning point, both rate-wise and policy-wise. One key characteristic of real assets is their sensitivity to inflation, which is especially relevant given the current inflation outlook. Although real assets have tended to be a more private-market strategy due to the illiquid nature of the underlying assets, Brennan points to the growing breadth of real asset options available on the listed market, providing a more liquid and accessible way to invest in the asset class. Brennan describes how utilities as a whole have moved from a broadly defensive stock to a growth story, driven by electrification and growing energy demand, especially in Europe. He also discusses the enormous growth potential of data centres. Traditional use cases create a solid foundation of demand, and the burgeoning AI technology promises opportunities for exponential growth for the asset.
Interactive Panel on Global Markets - Edmund Harriss, Dr Ian Mortimer, Jonathan Waghorn & Will James
Portfolio Managers Edmund Harriss, Dr Ian Mortimer, Jonathan Waghorn & Will James gather to discuss future opportunities in their respective markets and answer questions from the audience, covering interest rate considerations, the future of investment in Africa, regional interconnectivity, and shifting dividend payment policies.