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This month we reflect on how the oil market has adapted to the Hormuz crisis. Ship-to-ship transfers and pipeline rerouting have helped maintain flows while inventories have absorbed much of the supply shock. The industry’s resilience has come at a price, however, with refining, freight and insurance costs rising sharply and taking spot refined oil costs (as a % of GDP) up to 2008-average levels. This has contributed to 2026 oil demand now forecast to be 2.1m b/day lower than expected a year ago. Higher energy costs more broadly act as a burden on the world economy and in 2026 are likely to be at a level similar to that seen in 2022 and in the late 1970s/early 1980s, at around 9.5% of world GDP. Post the US mid-terms, the future of the conflict is unclear, but energy markets are likely to stay tight for some time, with nearly 1bn barrels of inventory to be rebuilt, new strategic storage capacity to be filled and damaged Qatari LNG capacity to be restored.

November 2026

October saw a sharp divergence in global equity performance, with losses concentrated in Emerging Markets. Emerging Asia ex China was particularly weak, falling 9.0% (in USD), while China fell 7.0%. The sell-off seen across much of Asia was driven by semiconductor names, which were weighed down by renewed concerns over competition and valuations in the AI supply chain. This was compounded by elevated energy prices, rising borrowing costs and uncertainty around monetary policy.  The sharp correction in semiconductor names highlights the risks associated with increasingly demanding expectations for AI-related companies. Even if the industry continues to grow rapidly, this does not necessarily mean that current margins and returns on capital can be sustained. We therefore expect a clearer distinction between companies benefiting from industry growth and those that can translate that growth into sustainable longer-term shareholder returns. Greater attention to earnings quality and valuation should favour the Fund's disciplined, bottom-up approach to stock selection. Additionally, the resilience of Financials, Utilities and Consumer Staples, alongside positive returns in Australia and India, highlights opportunities beyond the region’s largest technology companies.  In this commentary, we review the market in October, discuss the performance of the portfolio and its leaders and laggards, and comment on the outlook. 

November 2026

October saw a sharp divergence in global equity performance, with losses concentrated in Emerging Markets. Emerging Asia ex China was particularly weak, falling 9.0% (in USD), while China fell 7.0%. The sell-off seen across much of Asia was driven by semiconductor names, which were weighed down by renewed concerns over competition and valuations in the AI supply chain. This was compounded by elevated energy prices, rising borrowing costs and uncertainty around monetary policy.  The sharp correction in semiconductor names highlights the risks associated with increasingly demanding expectations for AI-related companies. Even if the industry continues to grow rapidly, this does not necessarily mean that current margins and returns on capital can be sustained. We therefore expect a clearer distinction between companies benefiting from industry growth and those that can translate that growth into sustainable longer-term shareholder returns. Greater attention to earnings quality and valuation should favour the Fund's disciplined, bottom-up approach to stock selection. Additionally, the resilience of Financials, Utilities and Consumer Staples, alongside positive returns in Australia and India, highlights opportunities beyond the region’s largest technology companies.  In this commentary, we review the market in October, discuss the performance of the portfolio and its leaders and laggards, and comment on the outlook. 

November 2026

This month we reflect on how the oil market has adapted to the Hormuz crisis. Ship-to-ship transfers and pipeline rerouting have helped maintain flows while inventories have absorbed much of the supply shock. The industry’s resilience has come at a price, however, with refining, freight and insurance costs rising sharply and taking spot refined oil costs (as a % of GDP) up to 2008-average levels. This has contributed to 2026 oil demand now forecast to be 2.1m b/day lower than expected a year ago. Higher energy costs more broadly act as a burden on the world economy and in 2026 are likely to be at a level similar to that seen in 2022 and in the late 1970s/early 1980s, at around 9.5% of world GDP. Post the US mid-terms, the future of the conflict is unclear, but energy markets are likely to stay tight for some time, with nearly 1bn barrels of inventory to be rebuilt, new strategic storage capacity to be filled and damaged Qatari LNG capacity to be restored.

November 2026

THE ENERGY TRANSITION: CRESTING THE BLUE WAVE The Democratic Party has taken control of both chambers of the United States Congress, the House and Senate, which provides an important, positive catalyst for the energy transition. While we caution against the likelihood of a dramatic re-rating in the sustainable energy sector as in 2020/21, we are encouraged by the prospects for incremental policy developments across the end markets that we invest in. Looking ahead, the Democrats’ victory will create a constructive policy backdrop as attention turns to the 2028 presidential election.

November 2026

THE ENERGY TRANSITION: CRESTING THE BLUE WAVE The Democratic Party has taken control of both chambers of the United States Congress, the House and Senate, which provides an important, positive catalyst for the energy transition. While we caution against the likelihood of a dramatic re-rating in the sustainable energy sector as in 2020/21, we are encouraged by the prospects for incremental policy developments across the end markets that we invest in. Looking ahead, the Democrats’ victory will create a constructive policy backdrop as attention turns to the 2028 presidential election.

November 2026

THE ENERGY TRANSITION: CRESTING THE BLUE WAVE The Democratic Party has taken control of both chambers of the United States Congress, the House and Senate, which provides an important, positive catalyst for the energy transition. While we caution against the likelihood of a dramatic re-rating in the sustainable energy sector as in 2020/21, we are encouraged by the prospects for incremental policy developments across the end markets that we invest in. Looking ahead, the Democrats’ victory will create a constructive policy backdrop as attention turns to the 2028 presidential election.

November 2026

October 2026

October 2026

October 2026

October 2026

October 2026

October 2026

October 2026

October 2026

October 2026