Global Innovators - October Commentary
Portfolio Manager, Global Team
Portfolio Manager, Global Team
This is a marketing communication. Please refer to the prospectus, supplement and KID/KIID for the Funds before making any final investment decisions. The value of this investment can fall as well as rise as a result of market and currency fluctuations. You may not get back the amount you invested.
Past performance does not predict future returns.
The third quarter of 2025 saw broad-based equity market gains as investor sentiment improved. The rally was driven by ongoing enthusiasm around artificial intelligence, easing trade tensions, and helped by rising expectations of monetary policy easing from the Federal Reserve.
It is becoming more apparent that the accelerating pace of AI capital expenditure (capex) is exerting pressure on balance sheets and cash generation across technology firms leading AI development. The “Big Five” US technology firms (Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta and Oracle) alone now account for an estimated 35% of total S&P 500 capex, up from just 5% in 2016. Based on consensus estimates, aggregate Big Five capital expenditure now absorbs over half of operating cash flow and is projected to approach 60% by 2027. Oracle’s trajectory is notable, with Capex-to-CFO (cash flow from operations) expected to exceed 100%.
Source: Bloomberg, Guinness Global Investors as of 30th September 2025
This surge in AI capex invites scrutiny over capital discipline and the sustainability of free cash flow and has caused debate over how quickly such substantial spending can yield tangible returns. Despite spending on graphics processing units, data centres and model development, company revenues explicitly tied to AI remain limited. AI and cloud-related capex can be monetised through multiple channels, primarily through direct AI revenue from products like Copilot (Microsoft) and Gemini (Alphabet), as well as through rented cloud compute. Beyond this, companies can achieve margin expansion and bottom-line efficiencies as AI automates workflows and reduces costs.
In this commentary, we examine the scale and implications of this AI spending, changes to the portfolio and individual stock performance.
The value of this investment can fall as well as rise as a result of market and currency fluctuations. You may not get back the amount you invested.
The information provided on this page is for informational purposes only. While we believe it to be reliable, it may be inaccurate or incomplete. Any opinions stated are honestly held at the time of publication, but are not guaranteed and should therefore not be relied upon. This content should not be relied upon as financial advice or a recommendation to invest in the Funds or to buy or sell individual securities, nor does it constitute an offer for sale. Full details on Ongoing Charges Figures (OCFs) for all share classes are available here.
The Guinness Global Innovators Funds are designed to provide investors with global exposure to companies benefiting from innovations in technology, communication, globalisation or innovative management strategies. Innovation can take many forms, not just disruptive tech driven products. It is the intelligent application of ideas and is found in most industries and at different stages in company lifecycle. The Funds are actively managed and use the MSCI World Index as a comparator benchmark only.
For the avoidance of doubt, if you decide to invest, you will be buying units/shares in the Fund and will not be investing directly in the underlying assets of the Fund
Guinness Global Innovators Fund
Documentation
The documentation needed to make an investment, including the Prospectus, the Supplement, the Key Investor Information Document (KIID), the Key Information Document (KID) and the Application Form, is available from the website www.guinnessgi.com , or free of charge from:
- the Manager: Waystone Management Company (IE) Limited 2nd Floor 35 Shelbourne Road, Ballsbridge, Dublin DO4 A4E0; or,
- the Promoter and Investment Manager: Guinness Asset Management Ltd, 18 Smith Square, London SW1P 3HZ.
Waystone IE is a company incorporated under the laws of Ireland having its registered office at 35 Shelbourne Rd, Ballsbridge, Dublin, D04 A4E0 Ireland, which is authorised by the Central Bank of Ireland, has appointed Guinness Asset Management Ltd as Investment Manager to this fund, and as Manager has the right to terminate the arrangements made for the marketing of funds in accordance with the UCITS Directive.
Investor Rights
A summary of investor rights in English, including collective redress mechanisms, is available here: https://www.waystone.com/waystone-policies/
Residency
In countries where the Fund is not registered for sale or in any other circumstances where their distribution is not authorised or is unlawful, the Funds should not be distributed to resident Retail Clients. NOTE: THIS INVESTMENT IS NOT FOR SALE TO U.S. PERSONS.
Structure & Regulation
The Fund is a sub-fund of Guinness Asset Management Funds PLC, an open-ended umbrella-type investment company, incorporated in Ireland and authorised and supervised by the Central Bank of Ireland, which operates under EU legislation. The Fund has been approved by the Financial Conduct Authority for sale in the UK.
If you are in any doubt about the suitability of investing in these Funds, please consult your investment or other professional adviser.
WS Guinness Global Innovators Fund
Documentation
The documentation needed to make an investment, including the Prospectus, the Supplement, the Key Investor Information Document (KIID) and the Application Form, is available in English from https://www.waystone.com/our-funds/waystone-fund-services-uk-limited/ or free of charge from:-
Waystone Management (UK) Limited, PO Box 389, Darlington DL1 9UF.
E-Mail: wtas-investorservices@waystone.com
Waystone Management (UK) Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.
Residency
In countries where the Fund is not registered for sale or in any other circumstances where its distribution is not authorised or is unlawful, the Fund should not be distributed to resident Retail Clients.
Structure & regulation
The Fund is a sub-fund of WS Guinness Investment Funds, an investment company with variable capital incorporated with limited liability and registered by the Financial Conduct Authority.