Reflecting on COP30: Nature, renewables and the gaps that still remain

The big picture

COP30 in Belém was billed as the “Implementation COP”¹ and a moment to turn pledges into action. Yet the current state of geopolitics casts a long shadow. The U.S. was absent entirely due to the Trump administration’s decision to withdraw once more from the Paris Agreement. China, undergoing its own clean energy revolution, has so far been unwilling to fully step into this vacant leadership role. Instead, Brazil sought to seize the moment, hosting COP in the Amazon as it put nature at the heart of climate diplomacy.

The stakes could not be higher. Global temperatures are already 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels². We know that the economic implications of this are dramatic, with climate change likely to have a permanent and compounding negative impact on GDP growth over time³.

This COP was also a chance to harness momentum in the clean energy transition. Renewables accounted for more than 90% of global power expansion in 2024⁴. Growth in solar and wind power met all new electricity demand in the first half of 2025⁵. Against this backdrop, it is important to ask the question: did COP deliver on expectations?

Roadmap away from fossil fuels

Many hoped for a binding commitment to phase out oil, gas, and coal following COP28’s pledge to “transition away” from fossil fuels. Whilst a large bloc including the EU and Brazil pushed hard, the petrostates blocked progress, with the final agreement text merely reaffirming “the UAE consensus” of COP28. In response, Brazil announced a “coalition of the willing” of more than 80 countries to pursue a fossil fuel phase-out roadmap outside the COP process, underlining the difficulties of finding future alignment in this area.

Climate adaptation

The COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago hoped this would be the “COP of adaptation,” and there was appetite among some countries to triple adaptation finance to $120 billion by 2030. The financial goal was agreed; however, vulnerable nations were disappointed with the target date being pushed out to 2035. Furthermore, the track record on adaptation finance is poor. Signatories are still struggling to meet the Glasgow COP26 goal agreed in 2021 to double adaptation finance by 2025⁶. Meanwhile the UN Environment Programme has warned that adaptation finance in developing countries needs to be $310 billion per year by 2035. The challenge of filling this gap remains profound⁷.

Nature commitments

Reflecting its own unique biodiversity, Brazil launched the Tropical Forests Forever Facility, which secured $7 billion in initial pledges. This also fell short of its $125 billion goal, reinforcing concerns about slow progress on nature protection and recovery. The final communiqué also omitted any reference to halting deforestation.
On the positive side, multilateral banks introduced the Belém Framework for Nature Finance. This aims to unlock private capital for biodiversity and ecosystem restoration⁸. At Foresight, we are committed to supporting this agenda through our Natural Capital portfolio, which includes over 12 million trees in our UK afforestation programme and more than 19,000 hectares of sustainably managed land. This portfolio delivers carbon sequestration benefits while creating significant opportunities for biodiversity gain and nature recovery.

Renewables as a solution

Whilst geopolitical frictions have contributed to a sense of inertia, dramatic growth in the deployment of renewable energy remains a clear positive. COP30 reaffirmed the COP28 pledge to triple global renewable capacity by 2030 and double energy efficiency. Leading global utility companies announced a $1 trillion investment pipeline for grids and storage, boosting annual energy transition spending by 25% to $148 billion⁹. This focus mirrors Foresight’s own view that the green transition depends not just on generation, but on grid connectivity and flexibility. These are particular areas of focus in several Foresight investment strategies including Foresight Energy Infrastructure Partners¹⁰.

Conclusion

Did the ‘implementation COP’ deliver? There was no headline achievement. But that was never the objective. Previous commitments were reaffirmed and multilateralism survived. There was little if any backsliding and against that altogether more modest bar, the summit was at least not a failure.

But while the UN process remains vital for forging a global response, within the current geopolitical climate the real work will move to complementary but separate channels. Brazil has committed to spending the next year overseeing two separate roadmap initiatives outside of the COP agenda. One of these ‘coalitions of the willing’ will focus on fossil fuel phase-out with the other combating deforestation.

Alongside these coalitions of committed countries, businesses and investors like Foresight continue to rapidly deploy renewable power, battery storage and other enabling technologies. The economics have now moved beyond the politics, and attracted by the opportunity of easily deployable, cheap and secure power it is now private enterprise that is the engine for change.

¹ https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-03567-7
² World's hottest year: 2024 first to pass 1.5C warming limit - BBC News
³ https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/cop30-in-focus-the-economic-cost-of-a-warmer-world/
⁴ Record year for renewables
⁵ Global Electricity Mid-Year Insights 2025 | Ember
⁶ https://www.wri.org/insights/tripling-adaptation-finance-goal
⁷ https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2025
⁸ https://www.iadb.org/en/news/mdbs-launch-new-guidance-cop30-measure-nature-and-scale-its-financing
⁹ https://www.irena.org/News/pressreleases/2025/Nov/Global-utilities-set-out-USD-1-trillion-investment-plans-at-COP30-as-grid-spend-grows
¹⁰ https://www.foresight.group/media/iuidxc3j/driving-the-transition.pdf